Senco Gold Shares Rebound 16% in 3 Days but Remain 51% Down YTD – What’s Next for the Stock?

Senco Gold Shares Rebound 16% in 3 Days but Still 51% Down YTD – What’s Next?

Senco Gold Ltd stocks extended their recovery streak for the third consecutive session on Thursday, rising 5% to touch its higher price band of ₹274.80. With this, the stock has recovered 15.72% in three trading sessions. Yet, even with the recent rally, the jewellery manufacturer’s stock is still down 51.22% year-to-date (YTD) in 2025, led mostly by poor Q3 FY25 earnings.

Poor Q3 Earnings Drag the Stock Performance

Senco Gold’s consolidated net profit dropped by 69.4% to ₹33.4 crore in Q3 FY25, from ₹109.3 crore in the same quarter last year. The EBITDA of the company also dropped 56% to ₹79.96 crore, down from ₹181.1 crore in the comparable quarter of last year.

As a result of the increased volatility in Senco Gold’s share price, the BSE and NSE have put the securities of the company under the short-term ASM framework, alerting investors to possible risks.

Promoter Group Raises Stake

In a significant turn of events, Jai Hanuman Shri Siddhivinayak Trust, which is an entity of the promoter group, strengthened its holding in Senco Gold. BSE data showed the entity bought 1.61 lakh shares on March 18 and 80,400 shares on March 19, thereby increasing its stake from 41.16% to 41.31%. Investors take most promoter share buys as a positive sign, signaling optimism about the company’s future prospects.

Technical & Market Outlook

Market insiders are still skeptical about the future direction of Senco Gold, referring to its recent downtrend. The stock, according to analysts, should cross the crucial resistance point of ₹275 for any further gain.

• Osho Krishan, Senior Research Analyst – Technical & Derivatives at Angel One, cautioned investors to remain patient, saying a clear and convincing indication of recovery is still awaited.
• AR Ramachandran, a SEBI-registered research analyst, said a close above ₹275 could propel the stock towards ₹333 in the near future.
• Jigar S Patel, Senior Manager – Technical Research at Anand Rathi, said ₹240 was support and ₹275 was resistance and added that a convincing move above ₹275 would be needed for a sustained rally.

Key Technical Indicators & Valuation Metrics

• Simple Moving Averages (SMA): The stock is trading above its 5-day and 10-day SMA but still below the 20-day, 30-day, 50-day, 100-day, 150-day, and 200-day SMAs.
• Relative Strength Index (RSI): The 14-day RSI is 36.37, indicating that the stock is yet to be in the oversold region (below 30) but still weak.
• Valuation Metrics:
  Price-to-Earnings (P/E) Ratio: 16.02
  Price-to-Book (P/B) Ratio: 1.56
  Earnings Per Share (EPS): ₹17.15
  Return on Equity (RoE): 9.74%

Outlook & Investor Sentiment

Though Senco Gold’s recent rally gives some respite to investors, the stock continues to be in selling pressure following poor earnings, high volatility, and regulatory jitters. The coming sessions are going to be decisive, and ₹275 has been a major resistance point so far. In case the stock convincingly goes past this mark, it is likely to make a further bounce towards ₹333, but failing to do that could lead to another fall.

Sentiment from investors is mixed, with some optimism from promoter buying but fundamental flaws and technical resistance levels indicating caution.